TechFlow Guide: While everyone waited for a September bottom, Bitcoin reversed course and reclaimed the 50-week moving average. Using historical data from six similar signals since 2012, this article breaks down which four triggered bull runs, which two were traps, and where this latest signal leans. For investors deciding whether to buy the dip, it’s a crucial, data-driven reference.
Six Reclaims of the Moving Average, Four Bull Market Starts
Everyone I’ve spoken to this month has been waiting for a September low. Bitcoin had other plans.
It had every reason to drop. The Fed hiked rates early Thursday Beijing time, the first increase since 2023. The next day, the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high. The U.S. Senate fell one vote short of passing the crypto market structure bill. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw their largest single-day outflows since June. Then on Friday Beijing time, Bitcoin rallied over 5% in a day, wiping out roughly $190 million in short positions within an hour, and by Sunday it had reclaimed the 50-week moving average for the first time since last November.
What people overlook is what happened historically after reclaiming this line. So I pulled our score history back to 2012, filtering for every instance where “Bitcoin closes weekly above the 50-week moving average for the first time after staying below it for a meaningful period.” That gives us six instances. Four launched bull markets. Two were traps. The signals that separate them are below, along with how this current situation stacks up.
I also adjusted my plan this week. The rationale is detailed in the Desk section at the end.
CSH Risk Dashboard
The CSH score closed at 37.4 this week, compared to 36.8 last Sunday. That’s lower than 65% of days in history.
Bitcoin: Historical Sunday price was $81,062 (approx. AUD 113,800). Up 4.9% for the week.
50-week moving average sits at roughly $78,800 (TradingView, Bitstamp weekly chart, Sunday). Bitcoin is now 3% above the average. The weekly candle will close at 10:00 AM Beijing time Monday.
Lower support: Bullish support zone, roughly $70,200 to $72,600 on the same chart. Today’s CSH score of 30 corresponds to roughly $69,700, meaning the support zone and the score-30 level are once again overlapping.
My plan: Keep waiting, but casting a wider net. My entry range is now CSH score 10 to 35 (previously 10 to 30 before Tuesday). Score 35 corresponds to roughly $76,800 currently. I haven’t placed an order since August.
What this adjustment means: The plan is still 4 points away from re-entry, roughly $4,000. If we wait for the support bounce everyone is anticipating—corresponding to a score of roughly 30—the plan will trigger a buy on Monday. If that doesn’t happen, the cash I originally allocated for a September bottom will deploy according to schedule when the score allows. I won’t declare the bear market over based on a single weekly close. Consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average is the real signal, and that’s the true test. But this week, I’m stopping my bets on lower lows, which brings me to why.
Six Reclaims of the Moving Average, Four Bottoms
I still remember the feeling in March 2013. Bitcoin had just closed weekly at roughly $27,000, reclaiming the 50-week moving average, and I was furious with myself. My self-managed pension fund missed the November 2022 low of $15,700 due to sluggish paperwork, and prices were already 70% higher. Too late, I thought at the time. Bitcoin then went on to rally nearly fivefold.
This is the trap of “reclaiming the moving average.” It always comes after a bounce, so it always feels too late. I wanted to figure out what this actually meant historically.
The setup is straightforward. Weekly closes dating back to 2012. Reclaiming the moving average means: Bitcoin closes weekly above it for the first time after spending at least a month below the 50-week line. Then I measured what happened next.
October 2015: CSH score of 19.5 that day. Held above the average for 134 weeks. Climbed 2.3x a year later.
May 2019: Score of 47.5. Held for 31 weeks. Up 1.5x a year later.
January 2020: Score of 39.9. Dropped back below the average within 8 weeks, followed by the pandemic crash that pushed prices 35% below the reclamation level. A trap.
May 2020: Score of 39.6. Held for 62 weeks. Surged 6.3x a year later.
April 2022: Score of 65.4. Fell back below the average in the second week, dropping another 58% from there. A trap, and the one most vividly remembered.
March 2023: Score of 41.9. Held for 137 weeks until last November. Up 2.5x a year later.
Four genuine signals, two traps. Real signals held above the average for at least 31 weeks and never dipped more than 7% below the reclamation close in the following six months. The traps fell back within two months.
The weekly candle itself tells you less than you’d think. The March 2023 reclaim was explosive, surging 32% in a week and closing 17% above the average. But the May 2020 signal that sparked the six-bagger only closed 2% above it. The April 2022 trap closed just 0.5% above. Big upside helps, but it isn’t the key differentiator.
Two factors truly separate genuine signals from traps.
First, how long Bitcoin stayed below the 50-week average. Prior to genuine signals, Bitcoin spent roughly a year below: 62 weeks, 49 weeks, 49 weeks. The pandemic case was only 7 weeks (a crash and V-shaped recovery, not a bear market). The traps emerged after only 4 and 13 weeks below. When a market languishes below the 50-week average for a year, it means it has finished grinding, and a year is roughly the duration Bitcoin bears have needed: the last three cycles took 13, 12, and 12 months from peak to trough, with reclaims occurring four to nine months after the low. If a market has only spent a month below, those processes haven’t unfolded yet.
Second, the CSH score on the day. Every genuine signal occurred between 19.5 and 47.5, meaning Bitcoin was historically cheap as it turned upward. The April 2022 trap appeared at 65.4, historically expensive. It was a dead-cat bounce in a bear market, and the score spelled it out long ago.
Bear market depth is a mixed metric. Three major cycles dropped 77% to 86% from top to bottom. Two shallower ones, 2019 and the pandemic, fell roughly 50%, and among those, one reclaim was genuine and one was a trap.
The Current Situation
Bitcoin has spent 45 weeks below the 50-week moving average. The CSH score is 37.4. By both of these critical metrics, this looks like a genuine signal.
The recent low was 53% below the October peak, fitting the profile of a shallow bear market, and this week’s candle is relatively mild: up 5% for the week, closing 3% above the average. Traps tend to look similar. The May 2020 case did too.
One number stops me from waiting any longer. Every genuine signal appeared when Bitcoin was already 65% to 80% off its lows. Each felt too late on the day. A year later, they rallied 1.5x to 6.3x. This week, we’re only 38% above the July low.
So here’s the plan. If a weekly close drops back below the 50-week average within the next eight weeks, it’s a trap; historically, both traps failed within this window. Should that occur, the plan will continue buying under a score of 35, and I’ll stop talking about bulls. If consecutive closes hold above it, I’ll publicly declare the bear market over, even though the plan will miss part of this move. That’s always been the trade-off. What I won’t do anymore is sit on a pile of cash waiting for a price history says rarely returns. And even at $81,000, the CSH score still shows Bitcoin is historically cheap: 37.4 is lower than 65% of days since 2013. You don’t need to catch the exact bottom to make solid money.
Jake’s Desk
First, I adjusted my system. It buys Bitcoin when the CSH score drops below 30. From August 22 onward, the score sat between 30 and 39, during which the system did nothing while Bitcoin climbed from $78,000 to $81,000 without me. So I reverted to the score history to see which buy threshold would have maximized holdings with unchanged sell rules, testing three starting points: the 2017, 2019, and November 2021 peaks. Thresholds below 35 were winners every time. Below 30 required waiting too long. Since early 2023, the score has been below 30 for 134 days and below 35 for 254 days, nearly doubling purchase days for the same capital. Selling from 80 onward ranked first or tied for first in every window, so the exit side remains unchanged. The range is now 10 to 35. Tweaking the system took 20 seconds; letting it sit idle for a month finally pushed me to change it.
Second, my own trades. The rebuilt “Today” page plots every buy against that day’s score. The ones I’m proud of cluster in the 20 to 30 range. Then there are points from 2024 and 2025 sitting in the 70 to 80 range, where the score indicated Bitcoin was historically expensive—I should have taken profits instead of adding on. Even though I built the tool, it still stung. That’s exactly its purpose.
Third, two dates. On September 6, I outlined two conditions for shifting risk capital rules: twelve full months from the October 7, 2025 peak, and a weekly close above the 50-week moving average that holds. The first arrives in 17 days. The second is being tested right now. Both fall within the same two-week window. If both are met, risk capital stops chasing lower lows and deploys according to schedule.
Product Note: The app rebuilt the “Today” page this week. One-liner summary of your system and next order, every imported trade plotted against the score, plus a trading file upload feature supporting export files from major Australian and global exchanges.
The Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at 12-0 this morning (our time), voting unanimously. It’s the first hike since 2023. A December hike is already priced in. Bitcoin’s weekly low came before the decision. It rallied during the announcement.
The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25% on Friday, its highest rate in 31 years. Same narrative.
The CLARITY Act, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, failed on a procedural Senate vote Tuesday at 49-50. Bitcoin broke below $75,000 that day, only to reclaim $81,000+ by Friday.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs: $450 million outflow on the day of the Senate vote, the largest single-day drain since June. $159 million flowed back two days later.
Monday, Sept 21, 10:00 AM AEST: Weekly close. Holding above $78,800 validates the reclaim. The close the following week matters more.
Thursday, Sept 24, 11:30 AM: Australian jobs data (ABS).
Friday, Sept 25, 6:00 PM AEST: Deribit quarterly options expiration, roughly $14.7 billion in BTC options, with max open interest clustered near $72,000. Another reason to expect a probe of support zones.
Wednesday, Sept 30, 11:30 AM: Australian monthly inflation (ABS).
Thursday, Oct 1, 10:30 PM AEST: U.S. inflation (PCE).
Friday, Oct 2, 10:30 PM AEST: U.S. jobs report.
Wednesday, Oct 7: Exactly twelve months from the peak.
No matter how these numbers play out, the system’s answer remains the same: Buy under 35, sell over 80, wait in between.
If this month’s market proves you wrong, don’t fight it. Early bull markets and late bear markets are when you should take maximum risk, and it never feels like it in the moment. The only way to actually execute that, when you have a job, a family, and no time to stare at charts, is to set your rules now and let the schedule make the calls for you.
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