Oil prices turn lower as Bessent says U.S. may have Iran deal "today or tomorrow"

Key Highlights

  • European shares rose on Monday, with the STOXX 600 up 0.3% and major bourses—Germany’s DAX +1.4%, France’s CAC 40 +1.2%, Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.9% and London’s FTSE 100 flat; climbing toward near‑record territory as a sharp fall in global crude prices and strong Q2 earnings offset weak Eurozone economic signals and M&A news.
  • Japan’s Nikkei slipped nearly 1% on Monday to 63,754.90, weighed down by a sharp yen appreciation after Tokyo and Washington confirmed a rare joint currency intervention last week. The broader Topix fell 1.1% to 3,960.03, with 169 of the Nikkei 225 components down, 52 up and four flat.
  • CXMT (688825.SS), China’s largest chipmaker by market value, is weighing a second memory‑chip plant in Beijing and is in financing talks with a locally government‑backed tech manufacturing hub, two sources said. The planned expansion following CXMT’s record $8.6bn mainland IPO last month, aims to boost output amid an AI‑driven global chip shortage and has intensified competition among local governments to win the firm.
  • Oil plunged about 7% on Monday to a one-week low after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes, raising hopes for a diplomatic de‑escalation and resumed Strait of Hormuz shipping. Brent fell $7.55 (7.8%) to $89.23/bbl at 0602 ET, and U.S. WTI slid $6.01 (6.7%) to $83.30 both at their weakest levels since July 20.
  • Oil prices plunged over 5% on Monday to three‑week lows after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran would resume this week. By 09:39 ET (13:39 GMT), October Brent fell 5.6% to $82.99/bbl and WTI dropped 7.2% to $78.57/bbl. Both contracts also slipped more than 5% last week, despite a monthly gain exceeding 20% in July
  • Gold eased on Monday as mixed reports of a possible U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough trimmed early gains and traders waited for key U.S. jobs data. Bullion pulled back from an intraday high near $4,084; by 09:31 ET spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,030.21/oz and gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,085.95/oz.
  • Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $62,650.40 by 09:32 ET, extending weekend losses as crypto markets reeled from a high‑profile hack and weak Q2 earnings from major sector firms.
  • Japan and the United States confirmed a coordinated yen-buying intervention on Friday and warned they will act again if needed, in a rare bilateral effort to stop the yen sliding to 40-year lows. The move aimed to prevent a selloff in the yen and Japanese government bonds from creating global spillovers, including upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. It was the first joint intervention since 2011. Central bank data suggested Japan may have spent up to $36.58 billion buying yen, and sources said the U.S. Treasury sold euros to buy yen.

U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday after President Trump said talks with Iran would start this week, while tech stocks continued their bounce back from July’s heavy losses.

Wall Street entered August after a weak July, weighed down by a selloff in the AI trade and a rebound in oil following the collapse of a U.S.-Iran interim peace deal. By 09:33 ET, the S&P 500 was up 0.6% at 7,532.25, the Dow rose 1.2% to 53,135.23, and the NASDAQ gained 0.5% to 25,504.26 — after the tech-heavy index led July losses, plunging over 3% as chip stocks endured their worst month since the financial crisis.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar

This week Wall Street watches major corporate earnings and key jobs reports, which could clarify consumer spending patterns amid persistent inflation.

Wall Street will weigh several economic reports this week, including June job openings on Tuesday and the key July monthly employment report on Friday.

Employment remains a relative strength in the U.S. economy, but job growth has cooled amid worries that inflation is weighing on households and businesses making payroll trends a key input for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions.

SpaceX (SPCX) reports its first earnings since the June IPO late Tuesday. Investors will probe Starlink growth, launch business, xAI progress, capex plans and any merger hints with Tesla, ahead of a lockup expiry two days later that will allow insiders to sell. The stock trades at record lows, well under the $135 IPO price.

Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC) and AMD (AMD) will shed light on AI hardware demand. Datadog (DDOG) and Cloudflare (NET) are key software names, and Eli Lilly (LLY). Additional earnings include Palantir (PLTR), Arista Networks (ANET), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), Dave (DAVE), Sezzle (SEZL), Oscar Health (OSCR) and Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO).

  • Business Inventories; Factory Orders; Trade Balance; JOLTS Job Opening
  • ADP Employment Change; EIA Crude Oil Inventories; ISM Non‑Manufacturing Index; MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Continuing Claims; Initial Claims; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; Productivity (prelim); Unit Labor Costs; Wholesale Inventories
  • Average Hourly Earnings; Average Workweek; Consumer Credit; Nonfarm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar, a more detailed calendar

Key Earnings calendar: (week of Aug 03-07)

  • Palantir (PLTR), Marriott (MAR), Tyson (TSN), Vertex (VRTX), CNA (CNA), CNH (CNH), Diamondback (FANG), Ecopetrol (EC), Hess Midstream (HESM), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), ONEOK (OKE)
  • AMD (AMD), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), McDonald’s (MCD), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Arista (ANET), BP (BP), Cummins (CMI), Duke (DUK), EOG (EOG), Gilead (GILD), SpaceX (SPCX), Toyota (TM)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY), Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), Shopify (SHOP), MercadoLibre (MELI), Novo Nordisk (NVO), SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), CVS (CVS), DoorDash (DASH), Allstate (ALL), AppLovin (APP), Brookfield (BAM), McKesson (MCK)
  • Airbnb (ABNB), ConocoPhillips (COP), Datadog (DDOG), Cloudflare (NET), Cheniere (LNG), Aflac (AFL), AIG (AIG), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Constellation Energy (CEG), Howmet (HWM), Monster (MNST), Parker‑Hannifin (PH), Sempra (SRE), Targa (TRGP)
  • Vistra (VST), Take‑Two (TTWO), PPL (PPL), Plains All American (PAA), Plains GP (PAGP), Oklo (OKLO), Hawaiian Electric (HE), Flour (FLR), CG Oncology (CGON), Almonty (ALM)

https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar, a more detailed calendar

SpaceX (SPCX) will report Q2 results late Tuesday, its first quarterly filing since the June IPO. Analysts forecast a loss of $0.23 per share on $6.88 billion in revenue, versus a Q1 loss of $1.27 on $4.69 billion, per the S‑1. FactSet expects AI-related revenue of $2.18 billion after SpaceX’s February acquisition of xAI, and $3.83 billion from Starlink connectivity.

Palantir (PLTR) reports Q2 on Monday, with analysts expecting the 12th consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth—revenue up 81% and adjusted EPS +115%. U.S. government revenue is forecast to rise 72% to $731m and U.S. commercial revenue 134% to $716m. Investors will watch regional performance, especially France and the U.K.

Caterpillar (CAT), up 43% year-to-date and the No. 2 performer on the Dow through Friday, reports Q2 early Tuesday with analysts forecasting a 32% rise in EPS and 17% revenue growth. The heavy equipment maker has benefited from strong demand especially for gas turbines tied to AI data-center builds and higher construction equipment sales, but its stock remains about 24% below its peak.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports Q2 results late Tuesday. Analysts forecast adjusted EPS up about 238% year‑over‑year and revenue rising 47%, driven by strong AI data‑center processor demand. AMD trades 16% below its late‑June peak but remains up roughly 128% year‑to‑date.

The week is packed with wide-ranging earnings across energy, travel and pharma. Big pharma names Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) report, as do biotechs Gilead (GILD) and Amgen (AMGN). The oil patch sees BP (BP), Occidental (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP) and others, while travel leaders Booking (BK), Expedia (EXPE) up 30% since June and Airbnb (ABNB) announce results.

It’s also a busy week for the Dow, with Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald’s (MCD), Disney (DIS) and index peers Merck and Amgen all due to report.

Weekly US Indices Probability Map

  • The U.S. weekly market probability map for August 03-07, 2026 suggests “Heading into a tough week for bulls—earnings from tech, semis, storage & pharma could spark volatility.”
  • Sentiment readings are derived from a hsitorical data based scoring system including geopoliticl risk.

Below are the key ways an InvestingPro subscription can enhance your stock market investing performance:

  • ProPicks AI: AI-managed stock picks every month, with several picks that have already taken off this month and in the long term.
  • Warren AI: Investing.com’s AI tool provides real-time market insights, advanced chart analysis, and personalized trading data to help traders make quick, data-driven decisions.
  • Fair Value: This feature aggregates 17 institutional-grade valuation models to cut through the noise and show you which stocks are overhyped, undervalued, or fairly priced.

  • 1,200+ Financial Metrics at Your Fingertips: From debt ratios and profitability to analyst earnings revisions, you’ll have everything professional investors use to analyze stocks in one clean dashboard.

  • Institutional-Grade News & Market Insights: Stay ahead of market moves with exclusive headlines and data-driven analysis.

  • A Distraction-Free Research Experience: No pop-ups. No clutter. No ads. Just streamlined tools built for smart decision-making.

  • Vision AI: InvestingPro’s newest addition. It analyzes any asset’s chart with professional-grade market intelligence, identifying key timeframes, technical patterns, and indicators — then delivers a clear trading playbook with the levels, scenarios, and risks that matter most in under a minute.

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.

Is now the time to buy CAT?

ProPicks AI evaluates CAT every month against thousands of alternatives using 100+ financial metrics.
It found Siemens Energy (+231.5%) and Sandisk (+189%) before the crowd did. Could CAT be next—or is there a better opportunity in the same space?
Don't wait to find out.