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Gold futures enter the new trading week in a technically important position after completing a sharp five-day recovery from the $4,011.1 low to a recent high of $4,180.2. The current price near $4,103 has moved both the VC PMI below the daily mean at $4,118 and the weekly mean at $4,114, placing the market in a short-term bearish-neutral configuration. These two means form the primary equilibrium zone. A recovery and close above $4,114–$4,118 would improve momentum and place the upper VC PMI targets back in play.
VC PMI Levels
On the upside, the first daily resistance is Sell 1 at $4,160, followed closely by Weekly Sell 1 at $4,173. The recent $4,180.2 high confirms this area as significant resistance. A decisive breakout above $4,180 would expose Daily Sell 2 at $4,213, followed by Weekly Sell 2 at $4,240. Under the VC PMI methodology, Sell 1 represents an approximately 90% probability area of reversion toward the mean, while Sell 2 represents the more extreme 95% probability zone, subject to confirmation and disciplined risk management.
Below the market, Daily Buy 1 at $4,065 is the first important support. It overlaps closely with Weekly Buy 1 at $4,047, creating a substantial $4,047–$4,065 support band. Failure to hold this region would expose Daily Buy 2 at $4,022, followed by Weekly Buy 2 at $3,988. The prior $4,011.1 low makes the $3,988–$4,022 region particularly important for determining whether the larger correction has been completed.
Cycle Dates and Square of 9
The advance from $4,011.1 to $4,180.2 represents approximately $169, or 4.2%, illustrating the volatility surrounding the current cycle transition. From the late-July low, the next short-term cycle windows fall around August 5–7, August 14–17, and August 28–31, corresponding approximately to 7-, 14/18-, and 30-day timing harmonics. These should be treated as potential reversal or acceleration windows, not guaranteed turning points.
From a Gann Square of 9 perspective, the $4,011 low and $4,180 high establish the immediate geometric range. The VC PMI mean cluster near $4,114–$4,118 acts as the central balance point. Sustained trade above that zone favors a rotation toward $4,160, $4,173 and ultimately $4,213–$4,240. Failure below $4,065 increases the probability of a retest of $4,047, $4,022 and potentially $3,988.
Disclosure: This report is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell futures, options, securities, or precious metals. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. VC PMI probabilities, cycle dates, and Square of 9 projections are statistical and technical tools; they do not guarantee future results. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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