SMC + Fibonacci Trading Framework BUY SETUP Liquidity: Sell-side liquidity sweep. Structure: Bullish MSS/BOS confirmed. Fibonacci: Swing Low → Swing High. Entry Zone: 0.618–0.786 retracement. Confluence: Bullish OB + FVG + Discount. Entry: After lower-timeframe confirmation. Stop Loss: Below structural invalidation/sweep low. Targets: Previous High → Buy-side Liquidity. SELL SETUP Liquidity: Buy-side liquidity sweep. Structure: Bearish MSS/BOS confirmed. Fibonacci: Swing High → Swing Low. Entry Zone: 0.618–0.786 retracement. Confluence: Bearish OB + FVG + Premium. Entry: After lower-timeframe confirmation. Stop Loss: Above structural invalidation/sweep high. Targets: Previous Low → Sell-side Liquidity. --- RISK MANAGEMENT Risk Per Trade: 1% maximum. Stop Loss: Always use a predefined SL. Risk/Reward: Prefer setups offering at least 1:2 potential R:R. Position Size: Calculate according to SL distance and account risk. Daily Loss Limit: Stop trading after reaching your predefined daily loss limit. No Revenge Trading: Never increase lot size to recover a previous loss. No Over-Leverage: Keep leverage and position size under control. --- TRADING DISCIPLINE Follow the Setup: Trade only when the complete model is present. Wait for Confirmation: Never enter simply because price reaches Fibonacci 0.618–0.786. Avoid FOMO: Do not chase a move after the entry zone has been missed. Stay Patient: No valid setup = No Trade. Respect Stop Loss: Never move SL further away to avoid a loss. Control Emotions: Avoid trading based on fear, greed, or revenge. Keep a Journal: Record entries, screenshots, reasons, results, and mistakes. --- CORE MODEL Liquidity → Structure → Fibonacci → OB/FVG → Confirmation → Entry → SL → TP Capital Preservation First. Consistency Second. Profit Third.
CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
In-depth trading ideasXAU/USD | Strong NFP Hits Gold Hard, More Downside Ahead?By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 6H timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, Gold first rallied toward $4510 , but then faced a massive sell-off after the NFP release and dropped as low as $4366 . The U.S. added 162K jobs versus 56K expected , strengthening the Dollar and rate-hike expectations and putting heavy pressure on Gold. Currently, Gold is trading around $4431 . The key supply zone is $4460 – $4490 , followed by $4500 – $4530 . If this analysis has been useful so far, give it a Boost to support my work . 🙌 On the downside, the important demand areas are around $4360 – $4380 and then $4310 – $4330 . For now, unless Gold reclaims the nearby supply zone, another move toward $4400, $4380 and $4366 remains possible. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAU/USD - Strong NFP + Weak/Moderate Wages = MixedXAU/USD – H1 – Ascending Trendline Retest / Bullish Setup Gold is holding above the rising H1 trendline and the 4,365–4,380 support zone, keeping the bullish structure intact. A successful defense of this area could open the way toward 4,550, while a clean break below support would weaken the setup. 🟢 1st Resistance : 4550 🟢 2nd Resistance : 4580 🔴 Support Zone : 4365 – 4380 📰 Fundamentals and Live Headlines : 1. Don't assume "Strong NFP = USD (DXY) must Strong. -- "Strong NFP + Weak/Moderate Wages = Mixed 2. U.S. inflation data is now the key missing piece, with CPI scheduled for September 11 and PPI for September 10. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Support the idea 🚀 Boost | 💬 Comment | 🔁 Share Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on Gold? Gold failed to break above the key $4,700 resistance area and establish a sustained move above this level. As selling pressure increased, price was rejected from this zone and subsequently entered a corrective phase, declining toward the $4,300 area. Going forward, we expect the correction to potentially continue toward the highlighted $4,245–$4,123 support zone. This area is particularly important as the horizontal support zone overlaps with the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels and the ascending trendline, creating a strong technical confluence that could attract buyers. If price reaches this area, we expect to see buyers step back into the market and a bullish reaction develop. Such a reaction could provide the basis for a new upward move and allow price to continue toward higher levels. In this scenario, the first major resistance is around $4,688, followed by the next target near $4,862. At the current levels, chasing long positions does not appear favorable. It would be preferable to wait for a deeper correction toward the highlighted support zone before considering a potential buying opportunity. However, simply reaching the support area should not automatically be considered a buy signal; ideally, we should first see a clear rejection, evidence of buyer participation, and confirmation of bullish price action. As long as price continues to hold the $4,245–$4,123 support zone, our overall bias remains bullish. However, a break below this zone followed by a daily candle close below $4,123 would invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the probability of a deeper correction toward lower levels. If you found this analysis helpful, please support it with a like and share your thoughts in the comments! Good luck with your trades!❤️
XAU/USD | Gold Holds Demand, Short-Term Bullish Targets Ahead!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 6H timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, price dropped toward $4380 but buyers stepped in again and pushed Gold back toward $4404 . In my view, as long as Gold manages to stabilize above the $4337 – $4376 demand zone , the short-term bullish scenario remains valid. If this analysis has been useful so far, give it a Boost to support my work . 🙌 The next upside targets I’m watching are $4420, $4440, $4460, $4480 and potentially $4500 if buying pressure continues. For now, holding above the current demand zone remains the key . Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAU/USD: CLEAN SWEEP TO 4562Looking at the strong bullish momentum from yesterday until now, many of you might be wondering whether Gold will keep surging or if a pullback is on the horizon? Through the lens of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , this current drop is merely a Liquidity Sweep —a deliberate dip to shake out weak hands before activating the launchpad straight toward 4562 ! Today is an ultra-sensitive session with a heavy cluster of US economic data releases (Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI, FOMC speeches). The overall game plan is locked in: Pullback to sweep support --> Bullish surge testing Turn Zones --> Exhaustion retest --> Explosive rally toward 4562! 📊 TECHNICAL EVIDENCE & PRICE ACTION LOGIC (H1/H4) 1. Liquidity Sweep & Consolidation Drop (4388 – 4396): Following yesterday's steep rally, short-term profit-taking has triggered a technical pull-back. Demand Zone: Expect price to dive deep into 4388 – 4396 to sweep out all the stop-losses from retail buyers chasing the move. This is precisely where Smart Money has placed institutional Buy Limit orders. 2. Igniting the Rally to Turn Zone (4457 – 4470): The moment price taps into the 4388 – 4396 Demand Zone, aggressive dip-buying will trigger a sharp surge targeting the 4457 – 4470 Turn Zone (major H4 structural resistance). 3. The Momentum Retest (4423): Upon hitting the heavy 4457 – 4470 resistance, selling pressure will cause a minor pullback toward 4423 . This pullback acts as a retest of the broken structural level while printing a Higher Low to shake out impatient traders. 4. Ultimate Expansion Target (4562): Launching from the solid 4423 base, institutional order flow will propel Gold into its primary expansion wave, slicing through minor barriers straight to 4562 . b]🌍 REALTIME MACRO & USD NEWS DRIVERS Core Macro Catalyst: Yesterday's bullish trend continues to be backed by downward pressure on the US Dollar (DXY fluctuating around 99.3 – 99.5) and cooling US Treasury yields. Impact of Tonight's USD Calendar: High-impact releases tonight (Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI) will act as volatility catalysts . News data may spark violent two-sided sweeps around our Turn Zones. If US economic data weakens, the USD will face heavy selling, turning dips into 4388 – 4396 into prime liquidity-grab opportunities for Smart Money. 💡 M1/M5 EXECUTION PLAN (SCALPING PLAN) Phase 1 (When Price Drops into 4388 – 4396 Demand Zone): NEVER chase Sell orders in no-man's land. Patiently wait for price to dive deep into 4388 – 4396 . Switch to M1/M5 timeframes and look for clear confirmation signals: long-wick Pinbars, CHoCH (Change of Character), or sudden spikes in green volume. PULL THE TRIGGER ON BUY SCALP 1! SL: Keep it tight right below 4380. TP 1: 4457 – 4470 (Bank 70% of profits, move SL to breakeven). Phase 2 (Catching the Retest at 4423): When price tests 4457 – 4470 and pulls back to 4423 --> Switch to M1/M5 for structural reversal setup --> PULL THE TRIGGER AND RE-ENTRY BUY TP 2 (Expansion Target):4562 . --- ⚠️ TRADING ADVICE & RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Never guess the bottom without M1/M5 confirmation: High-impact USD news days bring extreme volatility. Let price react clearly around our Turn Zones before pulling the trigger. 2. Strict Risk Management: Size down your positions, stick to your Stop Loss religiously, and never let an unexpected liquidity sweep compromise your trading capital!
XAUUSD | GOLD — 1H Technical Analysis...🥇 XAUUSD | GOLD — 1H Technical Analysis Current Price: ~4470 📈 Bullish Setup The chart shows a clear bullish trend with higher highs/higher lows. Price is consolidating above the 4420–4430 support area, while the rising trendline is providing additional support. 🎯 Targets TP1: 4505–4510 TP2: 4550–4560 TP3: 4575–4580 🔥 🟢 Key Support 4420–4430: Immediate support / retest zone 4285–4295: Strong bullish area 🔴 Resistance 4505–4510: First major resistance 4575–4580: Major target/resistance zone 📊 Confirmation A successful hold/rejection from 4420–4430 supports continuation toward 4510 → 4560 → 4580. Bias: 🟢 BULLISH above 4420 Main Target: 4550–4580 ⚠️ If 1H candles close decisively below 4420, the bullish setup weakens and a deeper retracement becomes possible.
XAUUSD – GOLD SIDES 4,449! 🌍 REALTIME MACRO Folks, today the market is fairly "quiet" on the US economic data side – no Fed "bombs" or CPI drops, creating conditions for gold to sideways accumulate energy. 📌 *However, the real-world macro isn't "silent":* - **Gold price:** Spot **4,395 – 4,437 USD/oz**, currently around 4,406 (Investing). USAGold reports **4,411.20**. (www.investing.com) | (tradingeconomics.com) - **USD (DXY):** **98.81 – 98.92** – USD bouncing slightly but still sideway at multi-month lows. (www.marketwatch.com) - **10Y Treasury yield:** **4.77 – 4.79%** – ticking higher, pressing gold short-term but hasn't broken 4.80%. (ycharts.com) - **Geopolitical tensions:** Hormuz/Iran tensions, Venezuela escalation (US captures Venezuelan President) → safe-haven flows still pouring into gold, keeping the "long-term" premium alive. - **Institutional demand:** PBoC net-bought ~20 tonnes in July (21-month streak), global ETFs absorbing → structural demand is holding the floor. ➡️ **Leo's take:** USD is weak but hasn't clearly broken lower yet → gold is in a tug-of-war sideways. **Buy-side has a slight edge** thanks to geopolitical tensions + central bank demand. Wait for a clear USD weakness signal or for gold to break the accumulation zone → then a strong push. --- 📈 READING LEO'S CHART (IMAGE YOU SENT) Leo reads directly from the chart: - **Current price:** **4,395.52** (countdown 01:10). - **Sideway range (accumulation zone):** **4,365 – 4,449** (per your scenario). - Chart draws the yellow band from **4,370 – 4,450** → almost perfectly matches your range. - **Intermediate resistance (pink/magenta lines):** **4,423** and **4,437** – two prior swing highs. - **Central support:** 4,390 (black line in the middle of the yellow zone) → equivalent to 4,405 in your scenario. - **Hard resistance:** **4,449 / 4,450** – top of the yellow band. - **Floor support (target if breakdown):** 4,330. - **Maximum breakout target (green arrow):** 4,485. - **Candle structure:** Sideway co-pause between 4,390 – 4,436 with Lower High + Higher Low patterns → market is waiting for a decision. - **Black zig-zag arrow:** From 4,390 ↑ to 4,423 ↓ 4,405 ↑ 4,437 ↓ 4,426 ↑ 4,450 – exactly your scenario! 🌊 WHY PRICE WILL FOLLOW 4,423 → 4,405 → 4,437 → 4,449 **🟢 Step 1 – Rally to 4,423:** - *Technical:* Current price at 4,395 is weak, needs momentum. Buyers will use Asia/Europe session volume to push price to retest old supply at the **pink/magenta line 4,423** (previous swing high). - *MACRO SUPPORT:* DXY 98.81 still weak + Venezuela/Hormuz tensions + central bank demand → bulls have reasons to test the prior top. **🔴 Step 2 – Technical pull-back to 4,405:** - *Technical:* Failure at 4,423 (pressed by T10Y at 4.78%) → partial profit-taking + sellers test supply. Pull-back to the **M15 EMA21 zone or central support 4,390 – 4,405**. This is the mitigation move to accumulate at a cheaper price. - *MACRO SUPPORT:* T10Y ticking higher to 4.78% + USD bouncing slightly to 98.92 → short-term selling pressure. **🟢 Step 3 – Strong push to 4,437:** - *Technical:* Fibo 1.272 + institutional buying absorbing bottom liquidity + M15 BOS upward. A new **Higher High** forms at the upper pink line **4,437**. - *MACRO SUPPORT:* Venezuela tensions → "safe haven" demand rising → gold tests 4,437 again. **🟢 Step 4 – Breakout above 4,449 (Final breakout):** - *Technical:* This is the **displacement that breaks the accumulation structure**. M15 close above the yellow band's top **4,449/4,450** + volume spike. Next target per the green arrow is **4,485**. - *MACRO SUPPORT:* USD clearly weakens (DXY < 98.50) + tensions escalate → safe-haven flows surge → structural breakout. --- ⚖️ LEO'S ADVICE 1️⃣ **Sideway ≠ FOMO** – only trade at the edges: 4,390 (support) or 4,449 (resistance). Avoid the noise zone **4,430 – 4,440** (you'll get stopped out repeatedly). 2️⃣ **Thin size for scalping** – don't hold overnight over the weekend or before major news. 3️⃣ **Take profits in stages** – hit TP1 → move SL to breakeven immediately. 4️⃣ **Risk management > prediction.** Survive first, profit second. --- 📌 *Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice. Always confirm signals on M1/M5 before entering any trade.* — **Leo** 🥇
Gold Is Replaying 4,396. This Time I’m Watching the ReactionGold has already shown us what it can do from this area. The interesting part is that the market has come back to test it again. After bottoming near 4,282, Gold rebuilt its H1 structure, recovered 4,396, printed a bullish BOS and eventually reached the 4,500 area. Then NFP changed the tempo. Price was thrown sharply lower and almost the entire bullish leg was retraced. Yet after all that volatility, Gold is still sitting above 4,396. That makes today's chart much simpler than it looks. I am not trying to predict the next 100 dollars. I am watching what happens inside the next 25. THE 25 DOLLAR TEST For me, today's important area is 4,396 to 4,420. Think of it as a test rather than a support zone. If Gold can defend the bottom of this area and climb back through the top, buyers have passed the test. If 4,396 breaks and Gold cannot recover it, they have failed. That gives me two very different trades. IF BUYERS PASS First, I want 4,396 to remain protected. Then Gold needs to reclaim 4,420 on H1. If both conditions happen, I will look for the pullback rather than chasing the breakout. BUY ENTRY: 4,410 to 4,420 STOP LOSS: 4,382 My targets are: TP1: 4,450 TP2: 4,480 TP3: 4,505 to 4,510 Reaching 4,450 would confirm that buyers are responding. Breaking 4,480 would put price back inside the structure that existed before the NFP selloff. But 4,510 is the real checkpoint. Gold was unable to establish itself above this area during the previous rally. If H1 eventually closes above 4,510 and the following pullback holds it as support, I would consider a second long setup. BUY ENTRY: 4,505 to 4,515 STOP LOSS: 4,475 TP1: 4,560 TP2: 4,600 TP3: 4,630 At that point, I would no longer see the move as just a bounce from support. It would look much more like bullish continuation. IF BUYERS FAIL My bearish scenario begins with one specific event: An H1 candle must close below 4,396. A wick below the level is not enough. We already saw how violent the NFP candles were, so selling every temporary break would be an easy way to get trapped. After an H1 close below 4,396, I want price to return toward the same level. If Gold retests 4,390 to 4,400 but cannot close back above 4,396, I will look for the short. SELL ENTRY: 4,390 to 4,400 STOP LOSS: 4,425 Targets: TP1: 4,360 TP2: 4,320 TP3: 4,285 Why 4,285? Because the previous recovery started around 4,282. If 4,396 fails, there is a reasonable chance that Gold goes looking for the origin of that move again. THERE IS ONE PLACE I WILL NOT TRADE If Gold spends the session moving between 4,396 and 4,420, I stay out. This is where I think many traders will make the mistake today. They will buy because 4,396 looks like support. Five minutes later, they will sell because the candles suddenly look bearish. Then they will buy again when price rebounds. I would rather wait. Above 4,420, I have a reason to buy. Below 4,396, I have a reason to sell. Inside that range, I have no reason to do anything. THREE NUMBERS ARE ENOUGH TODAY I don't need ten support zones on this chart. I only need three prices. 4,396 tells me if the recovery is still alive. 4,420 tells me if buyers are returning. 4,510 tells me if Gold is ready for something bigger. Right now, Gold is standing at the first one. The NFP move was dramatic, but the next trade will not be decided by how dramatic that candle looked. It will be decided by what price does at 4,396 next.
GOLD is Nearing a Strong Resistance Line!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a selling opportunity around 4,450 zone, Gold is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 4,450 support and resistance area. Trade safe, Joe.
Gold’s Rebound Has One Problem: It Is Running Into Old DamageGold is climbing again. That sounds bullish until you look at where the climb is taking place. The recovery from roughly 4,290 has been sharp enough to force short-term sellers out, and price has now returned to the 4,438 area. But above current price sits the part of the chart I care about most: 4,485–4,525. That red FVG is not just another resistance box. It is the origin of one of the fastest bearish expansions on this chart. And now Gold is walking back toward it. I am dividing today's chart into three rooms Think of the market this way: Room 1: 4,425–4,465 Gold is here now. Buyers have momentum, but the EMA 200 around 4,462 is standing in front of them. Room 2: 4,485–4,525 This is where I expect the real fight. It is the bearish FVG left behind by the previous collapse. Room 3: Below 4,385 If Gold ends up back here after this recovery, I would consider the rebound failed. That gives me a much cleaner way to trade today. Door #1 opens at 4,465 I am not interested in buying 4,438 and hoping Gold somehow breaks resistance. Let the market prove it. If an H1 candle closes above 4,465, and the next pullback cannot break back below 4,445, I would join the move toward the FVG. BUY 4,450–4,462 SL 4,428 TP1 4,485 TP2 4,505 TP3 4,522 There is one catch. I would not automatically hold this position looking for 4,600. The trade is designed to capture the journey toward 4,500. Once Gold enters the FVG, I reassess everything. Because that is where the chart becomes dangerous for buyers. Around 4,500, I switch from trader to observer This is probably the most important part of my plan. Imagine Gold reaches 4,500 after rallying more than $200 from the recent low. That is exactly where I do not want to become excited and chase the green candles. I want to watch them. If Gold trades through 4,490–4,515, fails to continue, and an H1 candle closes back underneath 4,485, I have what I need. The rally has reached old bearish territory and failed to hold it. Then I am interested in the other direction. SELL 4,482–4,495 SL 4,528 TP1 4,445 TP2 4,400 TP3 4,360 A break through 4,360 would expose the recent lower region again, with 4,300–4,280 becoming the larger downside objective. Notice the difference. I am not selling because “4,500 is resistance.” I am selling because Gold entered an area where sellers previously dominated and then showed me that buyers could not keep control. For a newer trader, that difference matters. But Gold can ruin this setup completely Suppose price enters the FVG and nothing bearish happens. No rejection. No immediate collapse. Instead, Gold closes above 4,525. Then another candle holds above the zone. At that point, I do not care how bearish the left side of the chart looks. My short thesis has failed. And strangely enough, the same area I wanted to sell can then become the area I want to buy. I would wait for Gold to revisit approximately 4,495–4,510 from above. If buyers defend it: BUY 4,498–4,510 SL 4,472 TP1 4,545 TP2 4,580 TP3 4,610 That would be a much more meaningful bullish signal than the rebound we are seeing right now. Why? Because Gold would no longer simply be bouncing. It would be taking back territory created by the selloff. There is one scenario where I do absolutely nothing Gold reaches 4,455–4,500 and starts moving sideways. Small candles. Repeated wicks. No H1 close through the important boundaries. No rejection strong enough to confirm sellers. That is not a setup. That is the market asking traders to guess. I would rather miss the first $10 of a move than manufacture a trade in the middle of indecision. The chart has already made one big move down and one impressive move back up. I do not think the opportunity today is about predicting which side ultimately wins. It is about letting Gold walk into the next room first. 4,465 opens the route upward. 4,485–4,525 is the battlefield. Above 4,525, I follow the buyers. Rejected from the FVG, I follow the sellers. Right now, Gold is approaching the door. The trade starts after we see who lets it through.
XAUUSD H6 Institutional Liquidity Levels Bulls/Bears▪️ My read: Coiled right under a 6.3/10 MODERATE lid at 4,433.53 to 4,491.78 with only thin weak-resistance caps above but VERY-STRONG demand and back-to-back POWER 8/10 clusters stacked below. A classic grab-and-reverse. The up-push into the lid and the weak resistances is bait to run buy-side stops toward the 4,647.94 liquidity and the Bear Cluster overhead before the dominant move rotates down into the 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 demand, where an 8.5/10 VERY STRONG SUPPORT and 12 retests make it the highest-value long in the near range. Reclaim and hold above the resistance stack flips bias bullish toward fresh highs. Edges pay, the middle chops. ▪️ XAUUSD is trading near 4,430, coiled just beneath a ★★ 6.3/10 MODERATE RESISTANCE · 11 retests at 4,433.53 to 4,491.78 that caps price here, with a near-term pivot at 4,419.09 just under spot. Above that, a ★ 4.6/10 WEAK RESISTANCE · 21 retests around 4,515 to 4,555 and a ★ 4.5/10 WEAK RESISTANCE · 14 retests at 4,647.94 to 4,675 form the upper caps, both feeding a Bear Liquidity Cluster overhead. Below, the floor is heavy: a ★★★★ 8.5/10 VERY STRONG SUPPORT · 12 retests at 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 anchors the nearest demand, with deeper POWER 8/10 clusters at 4,110.86 to 4,127.13 and a second graded ★★★ 7.0/10 STRONG SUPPORT plus a 10.43% bull cluster below it. Supply above is thin, demand below is loaded. ▪️ Primary outlook: up-sweep first, then rotation down into demand. The yellow paths run price up through the 6.3/10 lid toward the 4.6/10 and 4.5/10 weak resistances and the 4,647.94 liquidity to tag overhead buy-side stops. The red paths are the dominant rotation back down, reject the lid, roll down into the 8.5/10 VERY STRONG SUPPORT at 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 where the high-value long sits and the bounce is expected, with the 4,334 and 4,182 levels as waypoints on the way. 🔴 CEILING · overhead supply and sell-side liquidity ▪️ 4,433.53 to 4,491.78 · ★★ 6.3/10 MODERATE RESISTANCE · 11 retests · immediate lid, price pressing into it now · roughly +3 to +62 pts overhead ▪️ 4,515 to 4,555 · ★ 4.6/10 WEAK RESISTANCE · 21 retests · thin secondary cap · roughly +85 to +125 pts ▪️ 4,647.94 to 4,675 · ★ 4.5/10 WEAK RESISTANCE · 14 retests · upper cap into the bear cluster · roughly +218 to +245 pts ▪️ 4,648 to 4,720 · Bear Liquidity Cluster · overhead sell-side pool and stop-run target · roughly +218 to +290 pts 🟢 FLOOR · demand and buy-side liquidity ▪️ 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 · ★★★★ 8.5/10 VERY STRONG SUPPORT · 12 retests · primary reversal-long, nearest high-value zone · roughly -152 to -170 pts ▪️ 4,110.86 to 4,127.13 · Bull Liquidity Cluster overlapping ★★ 7.0/10 MODERATE SUPPORT · 18 retests · deeper magnet · roughly -303 to -320 pts ▪️ 3,997 to 4,021 · ★★★ 7.0/10 STRONG SUPPORT · 16 retests · high-value pool under the clusters · roughly -409 to -433 pts ▪️ 3,952 to 3,997 · Bull Liquidity Cluster · deepest floor and range low · roughly -433 to -478 pts ▪️ ORDER FLOW / ZONE MAP ▪️ Overhead: 6.3/10 lid at 4,433.53 to 4,491.78 → 4.6/10 weak at 4,515 to 4,555 → 4.5/10 weak at 4,647.94 → Bear Liquidity Cluster 4,648 to 4,720. Supply thins out fast above the lid, the up-sweep is built to run stops into that overhead pool before turning. ▪️ Below: 8.5/10 VERY STRONG at 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 → Bull Liquidity Cluster POWER 8/10 plus 7.0/10 moderate at 4,110.86 to 4,127.13 → 7.0/10 STRONG at 3,997 to 4,021 → Bull Liquidity Cluster POWER 8/10 · 10.43% at 3,952 to 3,997. The demand stack is the heaviest structure on the board, two POWER 8/10 clusters and three graded supports cushioning every dip. 🔍 SCENARIO PATH ▪️ Up leg first, liquidity grab: push from near 4,430 through the 6.3/10 lid toward the 4.6/10 and 4.5/10 weak resistances and the 4,647.94 liquidity to tag overhead buy-side stops. ▪️ Reversal: reject the caps, print a lower high, roll back down. ▪️ Down rotation: drive into the 8.5/10 VERY STRONG SUPPORT at 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 where the primary long fires, with 4,334 as the mid waypoint. ▪️ Bounce / reversal: lift off 4,260.36 to 4,277.96 back toward 4,430 and the 6.3/10 lid. ▪️ Deeper flush if 4,260 fails: the POWER 8/10 clusters at 4,110.86 to 4,127.13 and the 7.0/10 STRONG at 3,997 to 4,021 become the higher-value magnets, with 4,182 as a waypoint and the 10.43% bull cluster at 3,952 to 3,997 the last floor. ▪️ Bull invalidation / continuation: a clean reclaim and hold above the 4,491 to 4,555 resistance stack negates the rotation and opens the path toward the 4,647.94 cap and fresh highs. 🔒 Levels and paths from the zone model. No signals, no repaint, a scenario, not a promise. ▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk · weekly S/R and liquidity zones for FX, XAUUSD, GBPUSD, NVDA, NQ, ES and GC. Subscribe to stay up to date. #XAUUSD #Gold #Trading #Commodities #Forex
GOLD - The market is under pressure from a bearish trend ICMARKETS:XAUUSD remains in a local bearish trend, while consolidation below the 4,435 liquidity zone is becoming a technical catalyst for further downside The dollar is stagnating, but at the same time, it is weakening due to interventions by the Bank of Japan. Gold looks weak against this backdrop, especially given the Fed’s medium-term hawkish stance. Geopolitical risks and inflation expectations that could limit further upside remain in place. The key event of the week will be the U.S. inflation data on Friday, which will determine the next direction. Drivers: Upside for gold: further dollar weakness, a stronger yen, weak U.S. CPI data. Downside for gold: dollar strength, hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising geopolitical tensions (supporting oil and the dollar), strong CPI data Resistance levels: 4,435, 4,461, 4,490 Support levels: 4,365, 4,320, 4,290 Gold remains under pressure from a weak fundamental backdrop and the local bearish trend. A short squeeze around the liquidity zone is triggering further downside. I do not rule out a retest of local resistance before another decline toward 4,365–4,290 Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 3 From Buy ZoneXAUUSD — Bullish Wave 3 From Buy Zone Gold is building a bullish recovery structure after completing the previous bearish wave near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be preparing for a new upside continuation while price is holding around the Buy zone wave 3. The key idea is simple: gold may be forming wave (2) correction now, and if buyers defend the current buy zone, wave (3) can start pushing toward the upper liquidity levels. ⟡ Market Structure Gold reacted strongly from the previous low near 4,280–4,300, showing that sellers lost momentum and buyers started to rebuild structure. Price is now trading around 4,411, right above the Buy zone wave 3 near 4,390–4,410. This zone is important because it may act as the base for the next bullish impulse. If this support holds, gold may continue higher toward 4,441, 4,476, and the strong liquidity zone near 4,510. A clean break above 4,510 would strengthen the bullish continuation toward the Resistance Fibonacci + FVG / Sell zone wave 4 around 4,585–4,605. ➤ Key Levels ◌ Current price area: 4,411 ◌ Buy zone wave 3: 4,390–4,410 ◌ First liquidity: 4,441 ◌ Second liquidity: 4,476 ◌ Strong liquidity: 4,510 ◌ Resistance Fibonacci + FVG: 4,585–4,605 ◌ Final wave 5 target: 4,725–4,740 ◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,360 ⌁ Elliott Wave View The chart shows a possible bullish Elliott Wave recovery. Wave (1) formed after gold bounced from the lower demand area. Wave (2) is now correcting back into the 4,390–4,410 buy zone. If this zone holds, wave (3) may push price toward 4,510 and then 4,585–4,605. After that, wave (4) may create a short pullback. The final wave (5) target remains near 4,725–4,740. This is why Kelly is not chasing buys too late. The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation around the buy zone, then follow the bullish structure step by step. ▸ Trading Scenario Preferred bullish scenario Entry: Buy around 4,390–4,410 if price gives bullish confirmation from the Buy zone wave 3 Stop Loss: Below 4,360 Take Profit 1: 4,441 Take Profit 2: 4,476–4,510 Take Profit 3: 4,585–4,605 Take Profit 4: 4,725–4,740 Alternative entry If gold breaks above 4,510 and retests this level as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,585–4,605. ◌ Invalidation The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,360 and fails to reclaim the buy zone. In that case, wave (2) may extend lower and the bullish setup needs more confirmation. ⌁ Kelly’s View Kelly’s main view remains bullish while gold holds above 4,390–4,410. The market is showing a recovery structure, and the current pullback may be only a correction before wave (3) continues higher. If buyers defend the buy zone, gold may continue toward 4,441, 4,510, then the larger upside zone around 4,585–4,605. The bigger Elliott target remains near 4,725–4,740. Do you think gold will start wave (3) from this buy zone, or retest lower before the next rally?
Gold Has Changed the Script. Now 4,375 Decides the EndingGold spent days teaching traders one simple lesson: sell the bounce. Lower high. Lower low. Another bounce. Another breakdown. Then September 3 happened. Around 4,375, that rhythm suddenly stopped working. Price printed a CHOCH, escaped the descending structure and accelerated through the 4,435 breakout point, eventually reaching almost 4,500. That move matters. But I think the more interesting trade is happening after the breakout. Gold is now coming back to ask one question: Was 4,375 the beginning of a real reversal… or just a temporary interruption of the downtrend? THE MARKET IS RUNNING A STRESS TEST Look at where price is trading. The retracement has already travelled through the upper Fibonacci levels and is now sitting around the 0.618 region near 4,415. Below that sits 4,385–4,395, close to the 0.786 retracement and the origin of the structural shift. In other words, Gold is entering the area where buyers should start showing themselves. If they exist. I don't need them to catch the exact bottom. I need them to prove they are still here. ROUTE 1 — THE TRAPDOOR HOLDS Imagine Gold trades into 4,385–4,405, sellers push aggressively, but price refuses to stay there. Then H1 climbs back through 4,420. That is my signal. It would tell me the market has absorbed the pullback without destroying the new bullish structure. My execution: BUY: 4,405–4,420 after the reclaim SL: 4,368 TP1: 4,450 TP2: 4,478 TP3: 4,495 And I would not automatically close the book at 4,495. A clean H1 break above 4,500 followed by a successful retest could unlock the next expansion toward 4,525 and 4,545–4,550. That would be the moment when the September 3 CHOCH starts looking less like a bounce and more like an actual trend transition. ROUTE 2 — GOLD PULLS THE FLOOR AWAY Now imagine the opposite. Gold reaches 4,385. No meaningful reaction. Then 4,375 breaks on an H1 closing basis. At that point, I don't want to keep inventing reasons to buy. The market has failed its stress test. My attention immediately moves to the underside of 4,375–4,385. If Gold retests that area from below and gets rejected: SELL: 4,370–4,380 SL: 4,405 TP1: 4,335 TP2: 4,300 TP3: 4,270–4,280 And that last destination isn't random. The chart already has a major support pocket around 4,270–4,300. If the CHOCH fails completely, that is where I expect the market to search for buyers again. THE TRADE I DON'T WANT There is also a third scenario. Gold stays between roughly 4,390 and 4,440, bouncing back and forth without breaking anything important. For me, that is no-trade territory. This is where traders can easily lose twice: sell near support, get stopped; buy near resistance, get stopped again. I would rather miss twenty dollars of movement and trade the confirmation than pay the market repeatedly for guessing. MY READ The chart isn't asking us to predict whether Gold goes up or down. It has already given us two doors. Door above 4,420: buyers are recovering control → I look toward 4,450 / 4,478 / 4,495. Door below 4,375: the reversal attempt is breaking → I look toward 4,335 / 4,300 / 4,275. Everything between those doors is negotiation. And right now, I have no interest in negotiating with Gold. I want the market to choose first. Which level do you think gets taken first: 4,375 or 4,450?
Gold Breakout and Potential Retrace!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a selling opportunity around 4,380 zone, GOLD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 4,380 support and retrace area. Trade safe, Joe.
Gold Consolidation Upside Recovery & Market StructureGold is showing a strong recovery from the 4,280 / 4,320 demand area, with buyers repeatedly stepping in on dips price has formed a recovery structure and pushed back toward upside. Tecnically major recent driver has been changing expectations around the Federal Reserve. Gold rallied sharply as traders reduced some expectations for an immediate September rate hike, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments also helped ease rate-hike expectations, supporting gold's rebound. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is keeping demand for gold as a safe-haven asset elevated. Resistance levels ; 4489 / 4540 Support levels ; 4405 / 4385 Tecnically break above 4,490 could open the way toward 4,540 failure to break resistance and a move below 4,400 could send Gold back toward the lower trading range however, rejection around resistance could trigger another pullback toward 4,400 or the lower range. Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍 Like, Comment & Follow for more updates. Trade safe.
XAUUSD 2H — Intraday Bullish ScenarioThe current structure suggests a potential intraday bullish reaction from the lower liquidity/support area. Price has moved lower from the 4460–4470 supply region and is now approaching the previously identified liquidity pool around 4326–4305. BULLISH SCENARIO: The preferred setup would be a sell-side liquidity sweep below the 4326 area, potentially extending toward 4310–4305, followed by a strong bullish reaction. Rather than assuming the level will hold, confirmation would come from lower-timeframe price action such as: • Sweep of sell-side liquidity • Bullish displacement • Lower-timeframe CHOCH/MSS • Reclaim of the 4326–4335 area • Retest/hold of the reclaimed level Potential upside objectives: TP1 — 4360 TP2 — 4380–4390 TP3 — 4420–4440 The 4420–4465 region represents a larger resistance/supply area, so momentum may weaken as price approaches this zone. KEY SUPPORT: 4326–4305 SCENARIO INVALIDATION: A decisive breakdown and acceptance below 4305 would weaken the bullish thesis and suggest that the liquidity/support zone has failed. In that case, the long scenario would no longer be the preferred intraday setup. The main idea is: Sell-side liquidity sweep → bullish structure shift → reclaim → retracement → continuation toward overhead resistance. This is an intraday technical-analysis scenario based on the structure visible on the chart. It is not a prediction or financial advice. Price may invalidate the setup at any point, so risk management remains essential.
GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold is currently showing a strong recovery and bullish market structure on the 1H timeframe after reacting from the lower demand zones. The recent upside move pushed price through the previous consolidation area and created a clear Break of Structure (BOS), indicating that buyers have regained short-term control. At the moment, price is consolidating around the 4,468–4,473 supply/resistance zone. This area is extremely important because Gold has already shown some rejection and hesitation near these highs. A clean breakout and 1H candle close above 4,473 would strengthen the bullish setup and could open the way toward 4,500, followed by 4,526 and potentially 4,575. However, if price continues to struggle below the 4,473–4,500 region and sellers step in, a healthy pullback could develop. The first important downside areas are 4,450 and 4,422. Holding above 4,422 would keep the broader recovery structure intact, while a decisive break below this level could shift momentum toward 4,379 and then the 4,350 demand zone. From a market-structure perspective, the key factor is how price reacts around the current resistance. Buyers need to defend the higher support zones and break the nearby liquidity/supply area to continue the upside trend. Until that breakout occurs, some consolidation or retracement should be expected. Key Levels: Resistance: 4,500 → 4,526 → 4,575 Support: 4,450 → 4,422 → 4,400 Overall Bias: Bullish above 4,422, with 4,473 acting as the key breakout level a confirmed breakout can support further upside, while rejection from resistance may trigger a temporary correction toward the lower support zones. your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
XAUUSD-GOLD | 15M | Weekly Key Level AnalysisHey Guys, This week I’ve set the key level for XAUUSD-GOLD at the 4411–4441 range. Above 4441 we’ll consider buys, and as long as it stays below 4411 we’ll consider sells. I share these levels so you don’t make mistakes during the week; if you’re trading, keep them in mind. My key levels are updated every Monday and remain valid until Friday. For weeks now, the levels I’ve given have worked very successfully. What you see on the chart is just a few markings — only about 10% of the iceberg. The unseen 90% is kept secret, defined by my own trading strategies. Thanks to all of you who support my posts with likes; it’s because of you that I keep sharing these analyses.
GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold Price is currently consolidating around 4,432, showing a clear battle between buyers and sellers. The market has not confirmed a one-sided direction yet, so both bullish and bearish structures should be monitored. The current structure suggests liquidity is building on both sides, so the safer approach is to wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown rather than assuming direction from the consolidation alone. 🔼 BULLISH SCENARIO If price holds above the 4,425–4,430 support area and reclaims the 4,440–4,445 key point, buyers can regain control. A clean break and close above 4,460 would strengthen bullish momentum, opening the way toward the 4,470–4,480 resistance zone. 🔽 BEARISH SCENARIO If price repeatedly rejects the 4,440–4,460 supply/resistance area and breaks below 4,420, sellers could take control. A sustained break below the recent low would expose the 4,395–4,390 strong support zone, with further downside possible if that support fails. Overall bias: ⚠️ Bearish below 4,440–4,460, with confirmation increasing below 4,415. Buyers would need a decisive reclaim of the resistance zone to shift the short-term structure bullish. your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
XAUUSD-GOLD | 15M | Weekly Key Level Analysis Guys, at the start of this week I set the 4472.0 - 4425.0 range as my key level for XAUUSD-GOLD. Above 4472 we think buy, below 4425 we think sell. For weeks now my key levels have been working successfully. Every Monday these levels are updated. Guys, thanks to your support and likes I continue sharing these analyses. I sincerely thank all of you who show appreciation for my work.